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Acclaimed Analyst Produces "NIRP Crash Indicator"

The “NIRP Crash Indicator” was developed and named by Michael Markowski in February of 2016.  Throughout his 40-year Wall Street career the founder of Dynasty Wealth has been a visionary analyst.  From conducting a post mortem on the financial statements of Enron after its bankruptcy, he discovered what caused its death and named it “The EPS Syndrome”.   Subsequently, Mr. Markowski utilized his discovery to predict the collapses and bankruptcies for several seemingly healthy major U.S. public companies.   These included Adelphi Communications, formerly the fourth largest cable TV company in the U.S., and Fleming Companies, the largest U.S. food distributor in 2002.   In his 2007 Equities Magazine article “Have Wall Street’s Brokers Been Pigging Out?” Mr. Markowski predicted the collapses of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch, etc.

Because of the significant increase in volatility of the markets at the beginning of 2016, and especially following Japan instituting a NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) in January 2016, Mr. Markowski devoted the first two months of 2016 to conducting extensive research on the crash of 2008.  His goal was to isolate the cause of the crash, to better predict when the NIRP crash might occur. 

Mr. Markowski’s efforts were rewarded when they resulted in what he calls his “most significant discovery to date.”  He isolated the key metrics that could have been used in 2008 to predict that a crash of the magnitude of 1929 was imminent.   Additionally, the metrics could have been used to predict when that “storm” was over, as well as the V-shaped, or 180-degree reversal off of the market’s March 9, 2009 bottom.  The metrics are now powering a “crash indicator” which has four alert levels or signals; red, orange, yellow and green.

The NIRP Crash Indicator only monitors for potential crashes during periods of heightened volatility and is not to be relied upon for gradual corrections.  Additionally, the market could potentially reach new all-time highs before the reading turns red to signal that a crash is imminent.  Finally, the probability of a crash would diminish should an extremely positive U.S. or global economic event occur

Highlights of in-depth “Japan’s NIRP Increases Global Market-Crash Probability” Report:

  • Why risk is high that NIRPs will result in deflation becoming viral?
  • Why deflation is considered by economists to be evil twin brother of inflation?
  • What happened to economy during last bout of deflation (1930-1945)?
  • Black Swan Investing strategy to protect against NIRPs and Deflation

NIRP Crash Indicator Status and Research and Commentary by Dynasty Wealth Analysts and Economists 

Nov 17, 2016: NIRP Crash Indicator Status: Yellow

Nov 16, 2016: NIRP Crash Indicator Status: Yellow

Nov 15, 2016: NIRP Crash Indicator Status: Yellow

Nov 14, 2016: NIRP Crash Indicator Status: Yellow

Nov 10, 2016: NIRP Crash Indicator Status: Yellow

Sept 14, 2016: Last Signal Change Date; To Yellow from Orange

NIRP News, Videos and Reports

May 12, 2106, Bloomberg: Negative Rates Seen Pushing Japan Bank Profits to Four-Year Low

May 12, 2016, Bloomberg: Norwegian Central Bank: Negative Rates ‘Not Excluded’

May 11, 2016, Bloomberg: Negative RBA Rate On Radar As Fund Manager Predicts

May 11, 2016, Bloomberg: World’s Most Expensive Bonds Keep Selling In Land Of Minus Rates

May 10, 2016, Bloomberg: Oil Billions Offer Richest Scandinavians a Negative Rate Buffer

May 10, 2016, Bloomberg: Japan Post Bank Sees Investment Returns Combating Negative Rates

May 10, 2016, Bloomberg: Rosenberg Negative Side Effects Of Negative Rates

May 10, 2016, Bloomberg: Negative Rates a Curse For Savers As Funds Sound Alarm In Sweden

May 10, 2016, Bloomberg: Jeffrey Rosenberg On Spread Of Negative Interest Rates

May 10, 2016, Bloomberg:  UBS May Pass on Negative Rates To Very Wealthy Clients CEO Says

May 8, 2016, Bloomberg: Negative Rates Hit Global Shipping Market

May 5, 2016, Bloomberg:  UBS Hit By 'Double Whammy' Of Low Interest Rates And Regulations

May 2, 2016, Bloomberg: Slow Bleed from Low Bond Yields Drains Insurer’s Returns

May 2, 2016, Bloomberg: Longest Negative Rate Data Set Reveals Doubtful Stimulus Effect

May 1, 2016, Bloomberg: Negative Yields No Bar To Best Bond Market Conditions Since 2009

Apr 20, 2016, Bloomberg: Yahoo A Lesson In Why Activist Investing Works

Apr 19, 2016 Bloomberg: Negative Rates Seen Pushing Japanese Farmers Into U.K. Mortgages

Apr 18, 2016 CNBC: El Arian warns of the long-term damage negative interest rates will inflict on the world economies. 

Apr 13, 2016 Bloomberg: Lessons from Japan's Experiment with Negative Rates 

Apr 13, 2016 Bloomberg: Negative Rates Failed to Boost Japan Bank Lending in March  

Apr 13, 2016 Bloomberg: Why Negative Rates Are Negative for the Yen 

Apr 12, 2016 Bloomberg: Are Negative Rates a Positive for the Economy? 

Apr 12, 2016 Bloomberg: Where 14% Yield in a World of Negative Rates Isn't Enough 

Apr 12, 2016 Bloomberg: Bank of Japan Reduces Funds Subject to Negative-Rate Policy 

Apr 12, 2016 Bloomberg: Are Negative Rates Causing More Problems Than Solutions? 

Apr 12, 2016 Bloomberg: Japan's Negative Rates Fail to Boost Credit 

Apr 12, 2016 Bloomberg: Negative rates are here to stay for now Sundstrom

Apr 10, 2016 Bloomberg: Fink Warns Negative Rates Could Lead to `Dangerous' Consequences

Apr 09, 2016 Yen Volatility puts Market on Precipice of Crash

Apr 4, 2016 Bloomberg: BOJ negative rates risk destroying loan market as freeze deepens

Apr 2, 2016 Bloomberg: Treasuries rally intact as global woes outweigh US job gains

Apr 01, 2016 No April Fool's Joke: NIRP Crash Indicator Elevated to Pre-Crash Warning 

April 1, 2016 Bloomberg: Japanese business sentiment wanes with yen woes

Mar 30, 2016 Bloomberg: Bond bears miss out on 2-trillion windfall in record debt rally

Mar 18, 2016 Bloomberg: IMF’s Lagarde says negative rates have helped global economy

Mar 18, 2016 Bloomberg: Blackstone’s nine solutions for policy makers

Mar 18, 2016 Bloomberg: Marc Faber negative rates will not end well

Mar 18, 2016 Bloomberg: Marc Faber emerging markets are in recession

Mar 17, 2016 Bloomberg: Negative ECB rates fuel demand for safe deposit boxes, German banks say

Mar 16, 2016 Zero Hedge: World’s Second Largest Reinsurer Buys Gold, Hoards Cash to Counter Negative Interest Rates

Mar 16, 2016 Bloomberg: Risk of dollar rally seen on fed outcome as rate rise odds climb

Mar 15, 2016 Business Insider: “Negative rates are here to stay”

Mar 15, 2016 Bloomberg: Bond Traders Can’t Sleep as Fed Policy Becomes a Foreign Affair”

Mar 15, 2016 Bloomberg: Yield curve flattening in the Yellen Fed era

Mar 15, 2016 Bloomberg: Morning meeting global recession prospects

Mar 15, 2016 Bloomberg: Quick take: Central banks going negative

Mar 14, 2016 Bloomberg: “Federal Reserve is completely lost-David Stockman”

Mar 14, 2016 Bloomberg: “Bond Traders Can’t Sleep as Fed Policy Becomes a Foreign Affair”

Mar 14, 2016 European Central Bank: “Transcript from March 10, 2016 policy meeting press conference”

Mar 14, 2016 Business Insider: “Negative rates are here to stay”

Mar 13, 2016 New York Times: “Top Start Up Investors Are Betting on Growth, Not Waiting for It”    

Mar 13, 2016 Bloomberg:  “Morgan Stanley Says Bonds Set to Surge in 2016 Year of Bull”

Mar 13, 2016 Bloomberg:  “The Effect of a Month of Negative Rates in Japan”    

Mar 09, 2016 "Cash Hoarding has Thrust Negative Rates into Lead Role for Next Crash"

Mar 08, 2016 Wall Street Journal: "Jeffrey Gundlach Calls End of Risk-Market Rally"

Mar 03, 2016 Barron's: Excerpt from "Up and Down Wall Street: Less than Zero"

Mar 01, 2016 Bloomberg Video: Alan Greenspan: Negative Rates Warp Investment behavior

Feb 29, 2016 "Bill Gross Says Negative Rates are Going to Crush the Banks"

Feb 29, 2016 Bloomberg: Japan Sells 10 Year Bonds at Negative Yield For the First Time

Feb 27, 2016  Bloomberg: Euro-Area Inflation Rate Seen Heading Back to Zero Again

Feb 26, 2016 CNBC Video: The Legality of Negative Rates

Feb 25, 2016 CNBC Video: Negative Rates and Banks

Feb 25, 2016 CNBC Video: One 'safe' issue about Japan's Negative Interest Rates

Feb 23, 2016 Fortune Magazine: "Japan's Negative Rates Driving Up Sales of Safes